Donald Trump’s $2000 Tariff Payout: 2020 Crypto Bull Run To Repeat Itself?
Trump proposed giving $2000 to most Americans this year in “dividend” form. This money will not be paid by federal borrowing; instead, it will be funded by tariff revenue. Trump stated on Truth Social, “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone. We are taking in trillions of dollars and will soon begin paying down our enormous debt.”
For those who are criticizing the move, Trump said, “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!”
A $600 rebate bill was introduced in early 2025 by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley. He stated that “Americans deserve a tax rebate after four years of Biden policies that have devastated families’ savings and livelihoods.”
He further emphasized that “Like President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump’s tariffs are returning to this country.”
However, experts warn that the plan is politically bold and lucrative, but it is not financially certain. They say the tariff income is far lower than needed.
Erica York from the Tax Foundation estimated that around $300B is needed for 150M adults. According to USA Today, she stated that “A benefit capped at $100,000 of income could cover around 150 million adults at a cost of $300 billion.”
Similarly, John Arnold, who is a billionaire philanthropist, explained that “The idea could run as high as $513 billion.” Polymarket betting shows 80% believe that the claim made by Trump will never be fulfilled.
COVID-19 Stimulus: What Happened in 2020
The recently proposed bill is considered a copy of the April 2020 bill, which authorized $1,200 stimulus checks under the CARES Act. However, that bill was not funded by tariffs; rather, it was government borrowing.
During COVID-19, the majority of US citizens invested their stimulus checks in the crypto market, resulting in a sudden price surge. The Coinbase CEO reported spikes in $1,200 deposits, while Binance.us confirmed similar increases. Multiple users on Reddit and Quora reported using the complete checks to buy crypto.
According to a Federal Reserve study, “A significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades for the modal EIP amount of $1,200.” Just from April to June, bitcoin trading volume rose by 3.8%.
Crypto Market Reaction in 2025
In the recent scenario, Bitcoin prices surged by more than 5% in just 24 hours after Trump’s announcement. Although prices were dropping by 20% per week, experts are speculating that another retail-driven crypto wave might be on the way, just like COVID-19’s.
However, the result will depend on whether the dividend materializes. Also, the tariff-funded payout is insufficient to process this claim. Economic uncertainties may reduce users’ risk appetite, leading them to avoid investing in crypto. The US government shutdown is going to end, and it may also have influenced Bitcoin’s bounce.
