ITC Shares Gain Amid Market – Wide Decline
ITC Ltd. shares rose 1.29% on Thursday, trading at ₹405.25 at 3:15 PM IST. While in contracts, the broader market faced a sharp downturn.
The Nifty 50 index, which tracks the performance of 50 major companies in India, dropped by 0.95% during that period. Out of those 50 companies, only eight saw their share prices increase. The remaining 42 were in decline. ITC emerged as one of the top gainers, defying the day’s bearish sentiment.
The Gain Follows A Five-Day Losing Streak
During that period, ITC shares fell 1.15%. Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 16.26%. Over the past 12 months, the decline has been 10.33%.
The company’s market capitalization stands at ₹5,20,042.06 crore. This represents a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.12. This capitalization is slightly below the industry average of 23.08.
Despite this Thursday’s gain, the company continues to trade below its 5-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.
Steady Revenue And Mixed Margins
According to Moneycontrol, ITC’s revenue for FY25 reached ₹75,323.34 crore, up from ₹70,881.00 crore in FY24.
However, the net profit declined slightly to ₹19,926.05 crore, which is a drastic decrease. In the last year, the net profit was ₹20,723.75 crore. Earnings per share rose to ₹15.77 in March 2025. In December 2024, EPS was ₹3.95.
The company declared a final dividend of ₹7.85 per share in May and an interim dividend of ₹6.50 per share in February.
Cigarettes contributed 44% of ITC’s total revenue in FY25
GST on packaged chips and similar FMCG products was reduced from 12% to 5% on September 22. However, cigarette taxation remains unchanged at 28% plus compensation cess.
This rate will continue until the GST compensation to states is paid off. After which, cigarettes are expected to move to a 40% GST bracket.
In its segment commentary FY25, ITC stated that “Strategic portfolio and micro market interventions, with focus on competitive belts and to counter illicit trade, drive volume-led growth and reinforce market standing.”
FMCG Under Pressure, But Showing Resilience
JPMorgan, one of the largest and most influential financial institutions in the world, revised its FY25–27 EPS forecast downward by 4–6%. It cited margin pressures across cigarettes, FMCG, and paper segments.
According to JPMorgan India Equity Research, September 2025, “FMCG revenue growth slowed to 5% year-on-year in nine months of financial year 2025, in comparison to 10% in fiscal 2024 due to consumption headwinds and pricing pressures in stationery.”
As compared to last year, ITC’s EBITDA margins contracted 80 basis points YoY to 10.2%. However, they are expected to improve by 80–100 basis points annually over the medium term.
JPMorgan India Equity Research, September 2025, stated that “We expect FMCG margins to improve over the medium term, but near-term pressures persist due to pricing challenges in stationery and input cost inflation.”
The agri business showed strength, with revenue up 27% YoY and EBIT up 16%, supported by value-added products and nicotine export trials.
Global Triggers And Defensive Rotation
The rise in ITC’s stock occurred at the same time as fresh global uncertainty. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new import tariffs on pharma products, kitchen goods, and upholstered furniture.
This triggered a defensive rotation toward non-cyclical stocks like ITC, which are seen as safer during economic volatility.
ITC acknowledged this dynamic in its commentary, stating that “Resilient performance in FMCG Segment amidst subdued demand conditions and sharp escalation in input costs.”
ITC’s Thursday Gain Is Not A Breakout, It’s A Signal
The stock’s underperformance over the year, margin pressures, and regulatory overhang suggest that recovery will be slow. Yet, its diversified portfolio and stable demand base offer an edge to investors in financial fluctuations. The company’s ability to manage input costs and navigate tax shifts will determine whether it continues to improve or not.
